Record harvest estimates for arabica coffee have impacted domestic prices, with February 2026 seeing a marked decrease in average prices in São Paulo. The average price of the coffee bean fell over 14% compared to January, according to a study from the Center for Applied Economics Studies at the 'Luiz de Queiroz' College of Agriculture of USP. The change illustrates the influence of harvest forecasts on market dynamics.

In February, the Cepea/Esalq Indicator showed an average price of R$ 1,864.51 per 60-kilo sack of arabica coffee in São Paulo, reflecting a drop of R$ 311.31 per sack. This decline represents a crucial shift since it marks the lowest prices seen since July of the previous year and comes amid anticipation of a record harvest for the 2026/27 season, which hasn't been observed since 2021.

The potential for record harvests could positively affect coffee supply, but it also creates pressure on prices as the market adjusts to the larger volumes expected. Experts highlight that while the price drop may be challenging for producers, it could enable greater availability for consumers, particularly in a country like Brazil where coffee consumption is a significant part of the culture and economy.