A Chinese academic argues that Beijing's deterrence strategy regarding Taiwan lacks effective communication of its consequences and benefits to adversaries.
Li Yihu, a prominent figure at the Taiwan Research Institute, emphasized the importance of communication in the context of China's deterrence strategy for Taiwan during a recent forum. While acknowledging China’s military readiness and political determination, he highlighted that the understanding of both overt and potential adversaries regarding the consequences of China’s deterrent posture is crucial. He believes that without clear communication, the strategy's effectiveness could be undermined, leading to miscalculations by opponents.
Li predicts that the process of reunification will enter a more accelerated phase within the next five years, implying an impending period of heightened activity and potential conflict regarding Taiwan. He insists that it is vital for mainland China to balance its military capabilities with strategic messaging that delineates what adversaries stand to gain or lose in the event of conflict. This approach is not just about military strength but also about shaping perceptions and framework within which adversaries make decisions.
The context of Li’s statements takes place amid increasing tensions across the Taiwan Strait and heightened military activities in the region, which is attracting global attention. His commentary suggests that the Chinese leadership recognizes the need for a more nuanced approach that includes psychological elements in deterrence, as merely possessing military might without clear declarative communication may not suffice in preventing potential conflicts with Taiwan and its allies.
