The recent death of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, nicknamed ‘El Mencho’, leaves a significant power vacuum in the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). While many might assume that his demise would lead to the collapse of the cartel, analysts indicate that there are numerous armed leaders within and beyond the organization capable of taking over his influence. These individuals possess territorial control and financial networks strong enough to challenge each other for leadership, indicating that the internal power struggle is likely to spark violent clashes among rival factions, potentially reshaping the criminal landscape in Mexico.

Furthermore, the U.S. Department of the Treasury highlighted certain high-profile CJNG leaders who remain free and are significant enough to cause further instability following El Mencho's death. The cartel's operations, which expanded through his unique leadership style into various states across Mexico, continue to function similarly to a franchise, creating vast revenues primarily from fentanyl and cocaine trafficking. Analysts warn that this continuity allows the CJNG to sustain its operations and influence despite the loss of its head.

The implications of El Mencho's death extend beyond immediate power struggles within the CJNG. As various factions vie for control, the potential for renewed violence and reformation of alliances could exacerbate the ongoing drug war in Mexico. Law enforcement and security agencies must remain vigilant in anticipating and countering these shifts, as they may lead to a more volatile environment and exacerbate the harm posed to communities affected by drug trafficking and organized crime.