The geopolitical tension in West Asia is at a peak due to recent joint attacks by the U.S. and Israel on Iran, intensified further by the death of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In response, Iran has launched missile attacks against Israeli and U.S. military bases in the Middle East, raising critical questions about the stability of the Iranian regime and the possibility of a regime change initiated by the U.S. This escalation has prompted renewed speculations on whether the current Islamic government in Iran can be overthrown and if America could successfully achieve that.

Former Indian diplomat Achal Malhotra has weighed in on the subject, asserting that a change in power in Iran is neither simplistic nor within America's capabilities. Even if one were to assume that the current theocratic regime collapses, Malhotra warns that there is no credible alternative ready to fill the political vacuum that would ensue. He highlights that discussions often revert to the name of Reza Pahlavi, the last Shah of Iran; however, there is no consensus even within the U.S. on whether he should be the one to reclaim power in Iran.

This analysis suggests a complex and multifaceted situation in Iran, characterized by not only external military pressures but also internal political complexities. The absence of a viable alternative to the current regime poses significant challenges to any attempts at regime change, indicating that any future U.S. policies must navigate these intricate realities if they are to be effective.