The article explores expert opinions on the implications of the recent attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran, particularly concerning the future of the Iranian regime. Hilde Henriksen Waage, a Middle East researcher, argues that the likelihood of a new regime taking over in Iran is very low, as there is no viable opposition to step in. She criticizes arguments suggesting that bombing Iran could pave the way for a popular uprising, describing such hopes as unrealistic. This sentiment is echoed by other scholars who doubt that the attacks will lead to regime change, pointing to the prolonged suppression of dissent within Iran as a significant barrier to political change.

Furthermore, the article discusses the broader potential consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. There are concerns about the possibility of the situation escalating into a larger regional war, with Iran possessing the capability to retaliate against US military bases, Israel, and critical maritime regions such as the Strait of Hormuz. The implications of such an escalation could be grave not only for the countries directly involved but also for global security, given the strategic importance of the affected areas. The discourse reflects a complex interplay of military action and the geopolitical landscape in the region, demonstrating the precarious balance that exists in Middle Eastern politics.

Overall, the piece underscores the uncertainty surrounding the Iranian political landscape and the volatile dynamics in the region, warning that military interventions may lead to unintended consequences rather than the hoped-for political changes.