Wu Shicun, a prominent South China Sea expert, expressed grave doubts regarding the feasibility of finalizing a code of conduct for the South China Sea by 2026, particularly due to the Philippines holding the ASEAN chairmanship. He stated that the Philippines would likely raise the 2016 arbitration ruling that rejected China's expansive claims over the area, complicating negotiations. Despite recent improvements in relations between China and the Philippines, Wu believes that these tensions will hinder any meaningful progress.

Wu's comments underscore the persistent challenges in negotiating a cohesive framework in the South China Sea, an area fraught with territorial disputes involving multiple nations including China, the Philippines, Vietnam, and others. The code of conduct, intended to establish a set of rules for behavior in the contested waters, appears increasingly elusive. Wu's assertion that it is "100 percent" unlikely deals a blow to hopes that a comprehensive agreement could be achieved soon.

The implications of Wu's analysis extend beyond just geopolitics; they reflect the complex interplay of regional power dynamics and national interests that have historically complicated South China Sea negotiations. As tensions fluctuate, the inability to reach an agreement on the code of conduct could exacerbate instability in the region, affecting trade routes, regional security, and international relations.