The Philippines is set to chair ASEAN in 2026 and is pushing to finalize a legally binding code of conduct for the South China Sea, which has been a recurring source of tension among regional powers like China and Vietnam. Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa may have highlighted this goal recently, asserting commitment to diplomatic efforts, but the prospect of achieving a viable agreement appears challenging. Experts suggest that the historical and ongoing disputes in the region significantly complicate Manila's ambitions, translating them into more of a symbolic than practical endeavor.

As tensions flare among claimants in the South China Sea, the Philippines' position becomes precarious, especially amid its fraught relations with China. The Philippines' attempt to assert a stronger stance on maritime issues is a response to the increasing assertiveness of China in these contested waters. However, analysts point out that the institutional and geopolitical realities often impede effective negotiation and compliance with such agreements, casting doubts on Manila’s ability to deliver a comprehensive and infallible code of conduct by the end of its chairmanship.

This situation has broader implications for regional stability and international maritime law, placing the Philippines in a pivotal role as it engages with ASEAN members to seek a middle ground on the contentious sea disputes. The outcomes of these negotiations may also affect bilateral relations between Manila and its neighbors, shaping the future dynamics of cooperation and conflict over resources in what is one of the world’s busiest maritime trade corridors.