According to the Brazilian government, following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the prospects for a regime change in Iran resemble the turmoil experienced in Iraq rather than the smoother transition seen in Venezuela. Brazilian officials from both the Planalto and Itamaraty emphasize that the likelihood of a peaceful transition, akin to what has recently occurred in Caracas since the capture of dictator Nicolás Maduro by the U.S., is low for Iran. They argue that it is unlikely that an individual from within the Iranian regime could be influenced by the United States to maintain open shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz and welcome American oil and gas companies, which contrasts with the collaboration seen with Venezuela's interim leader, Delcy Rodríguez.

Moreover, Brazilian officials express concerns that, rather than a peaceful handoff of power, Iran could descend into chaos and civil war reminiscent of the aftermath of the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. The belief is that Iran's internal dynamics and the strength of its existing regime make a smooth transition improbable. This perspective reflects a broader skepticism within Brazil's government about the stability of the Middle East in the wake of significant political changes, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of regime changes in countries with deeply rooted political structures.

This assessment not only illustrates Brazil's cautious diplomatic stance towards the potential upheaval in Iran but also signals the implications for regional security and international relations. The analysis could influence how Brazil aligns its foreign policy regarding Middle Eastern affairs, particularly focusing on engagement and response strategies as the situation develops in Iran, which holds significant geopolitical importance due to its oil reserves and strategic waterways.