The ongoing conflict in Iran, which faced attacks from the United States and Israel, is anticipated by analysts to benefit Brazilian oil exports due to potential disruptions in the Iranian oil supply chain. Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route for global oil where about one-fifth of the world's production passes, raises concerns for the international oil market. As Brazil has significant oil exports, particularly to Asia, this situation might allow Brazilian producers to fill the gap left by Iranian oil in the market.

Roberto Ardenghy, president of the Brazilian Institute of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (IBP), notes that countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran, Kuwait, and Iraq export a considerable amount of oil to Asia, especially China. If the conflict restricts oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, Brazilian producers and other Latin American countries could gain greater market access to Asia for their oil exports. In the previous year, Brazil exported $44.5 billion worth of oil, accounting for 12.8% of its total sales abroad.

However, the prospect of rising oil prices stemming from this conflict raises worrying implications for global inflation, with increased costs potentially being passed on to consumers worldwide. Therefore, while Brazil might see opportunities for increased oil sales, the broader economic repercussions of rising oil prices are a significant concern for analysts and markets alike, highlighting the intricate balance between potential benefits for Brazilian exports and the risks of global inflation.