Following a joint US-Israeli strike against Iran, analysts surveyed by Reuters estimate that oil prices may see a significant increase as markets reopen on Monday. This anticipation is rooted in the disruption of operations by major oil companies and trading firms through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil transit route. The head of commodity research at RBC Capital, Helima Croft, suggests that the long-term impact of military operations on oil prices will depend on whether the Iranian Revolutionary Guard capitulates to aerial assaults or opts for escalatory responses, which could tighten supply and increase prices further.

Furthermore, regional leaders have cautioned Washington about the risks associated with further conflict with Iran, highlighting the significant implications if oil prices exceed $100 per barrel. Croft noted that increasing production from OPEC+ will have a limited impact as nearly all member states, with the exception of Saudi Arabia, are already operating at full capacity. The complexity of the situation is further underscored by geopolitical analyses, as geopolitical analysts like George Lyon from Rystad Energy point out,

that while alternative infrastructure can be utilized in the Middle East to circumvent bottlenecks in the Strait, the net effects of such measures on global oil supply remain uncertain. The potential volatility in oil prices will undoubtedly have widespread implications not only for producers and consumers but also for the global economy, particularly in the wake of existing economic challenges facing various nations around the world.