Recent U.S. intelligence assessments estimate that following a joint attack with Israel meant to target senior Iranian officials, such as the recently deceased Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a complete regime change in Iran is unlikely. Instead, it is anticipated that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard will likely attempt to consolidate power in the aftermath, potentially leading to an increased degree of control over the country's political landscape.

Experts warn that the absence of a direct military presence by the United States limits its ability to influence the outcomes within Iran. The complexities of Iranian politics, historical resilience of the regime, and the potential for internal power struggles suggest that external actors might have a limited role in shaping future developments, even after significant military actions.

As the situation evolves, it becomes crucial for U.S. policymakers to reconsider their strategic options in the Middle East, particularly regarding engagement with Iran. The evolving dynamics may necessitate a more nuanced approach to diplomacy and intelligence to effectively navigate the changing environment in a country that has historically been resistant to foreign interventions.