The International Crisis Group recently published its 321st report, focusing on the Sahel region under the title "The Support Group for Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and the Dilemma of Expansion Beyond the Sahel." This report highlights the evolution of JNIM from a local combatant group to a significant transnational threat. What began in 2017 with the goal to drive out French forces has morphed into a complex situation where JNIM has significantly expanded its reach across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

In less than a decade, JNIM has transformed from a localized force into a regional player, effectively blockading several major cities and disrupting critical transportation corridors. The report details how this expansion has not only altered the security dynamics in the region but also placed immense pressure on local populations, exacerbating humanitarian crises; for instance, the capital of Mali, Bamako, has been experiencing severe fuel shortages since September 2025.

Furthermore, the report raises alarms about the ongoing instability in the region, which is further compounded by socio-political issues, and the inability of local governments to effectively address these threats. Consequently, cities like Ouagadougou are on high alert as the situation continues to deteriorate, necessitating urgent international attention and intervention to restore order and security in the Sahel.