The dollar rises again and the country risk erases all the decrease achieved this year: why the market turned around
The Argentine government is facing a surge in the dollar and country risk at the end of February, reversing previous gains.
The Argentine financial landscape has seen a reversal this February as both the retail dollar and country risk indicators rise significantly. The retail dollar has climbed 10 pesos to $1,435, marking the fourth consecutive increase, while the JP Morgan country risk index has surged 4% to 576 basis points. This uptick in country risk completely wipes out the annual improvement previously recorded, suggesting a troubling shift in market sentiment.
The growing country risk, which has risen 16% in February alone, seems to be driven by a decline in bond prices amidst investor skepticism. Despite recent political and financial successes of the government, including a successful bond placement worth $250 million, the market response has not been favorable. The bonds, which were intended to refinance existing debt, witnessed a 1% drop in value, indicating a disconnect between market behavior and government achievements.
Investors appear to be seeking more clarity and stability in the market. Notably, the demand for these dollar bonds from the government was six times higher than the amount offered, highlighting a strong interest despite the rising risks. However, this dynamic suggests that while some investors may be eager to engage with new debt offerings, the overall market sentiment remains cautious and potentially volatile as key indicators trend in the wrong direction for the Argentine economy.