A proposed revision to Italy's electoral system is expected to enhance the re-election prospects of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in the upcoming year, as indicated by studies published on Friday. This reform suggests that even a slight lead over the opposition could ensure a decisive victory for Meloni. The current political landscape indicates that any coalition securing more than 40% of the vote will benefit from a seat bonus that is designed to provide a stable majority, highlighting the strategic changes in the political scene.

This week, the ruling center-right parties reached an agreement to overhaul the electoral rules, transitioning to a fully proportional system with a bonus for those alliances achieving the 40% threshold. However, this reform awaits parliamentary approval to come into effect. The new system is considered to align better with the current needs of Italy's political environment, aiming to stabilize governance by enabling clearer majority outcomes from elections.

A simulation by polling company YouTrend suggests that under the existing electoral framework, characterized by a predominantly proportional system where 36% of MPs are elected in majority-vote districts, neither of the major coalitions would secure a majority. This highlights the potential benefits of the new proposal in giving clarity and strength to the ruling party and setting the stage for a dynamic re-election campaign for Meloni in 2024.