Latvia is currently facing a snow cover of 20 to 50 centimeters, with river ice thickness averaging over 30 centimeters. This solid ice cover can lead to a slower and more uniform thaw, which is generally favorable. However, a partially frozen Gulf of Riga poses additional risks. The Ministry of Climate and Energy has indicated that the situation could resemble the significant floods seen in 2010 and 2013, when extensive areas of Latvia were inundated, depending on unfolding spring weather conditions.

The development of the flooding scenarios is heavily dependent on the weather over the coming weeks. If current conditions persist, with daytime temperatures slightly above freezing and nighttime frost, officials anticipate yellow and orange flood warnings. Should a rapid warming trend occur alongside heavy rainfall, the possibility of red flood warnings increases significantly. Authorities stress that while short-term weather predictions are reliable for about three days, long-term projections remain challenging, making preparation for various outcomes crucial.

The potential for flooding is a major concern for local communities, as it can have serious implications for both individuals and infrastructure. Response measures are being considered, and while officials encourage readiness, they also stress the importance of monitoring weather updates closely. The situation exemplifies the unpredictability of seasonal weather patterns and the need for effective planning and response from both governmental bodies and residents during this critical period.