The recent ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court, which invalidated tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), alongside announcing new tariffs under section 122, is reshaping the trade landscape as Mexico prepares for the formal review of the T-MEC (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement). In the short term, the direct impact on Mexico appears to be limited since a significant portion of its exports aligns with the treaty's regulations, thus mitigating the overall effect on average tariffs.

However, the structural risks remain considerable. Should U.S. trade policy shift towards more stringent instruments like sections 232 or 301, potentially with fewer exemptions for Mexico, this could lead to a more restrictive trade environment, particularly affecting strategic sectors such as automotive and advanced manufacturing. This scenario could create significant challenges for Mexican exporters as they navigate a more competitive and protectionist U.S. market.

The T-MEC review is taking place against a backdrop of industrial redefinition in the United States, with a strong emphasis on bolstering its manufacturing base and reducing external dependencies. As a result, the negotiations are likely to introduce stricter rules of origin, aiming to further American interests in maintaining a competitive edge while reshaping the economic relationship with Mexico, which could have long-term implications for trade dynamics between the two nations.