In Sudan's Darfur region, there is increasing concern that the military activities of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) could lead to a significant escalation of ethnic violence. Recent weeks have seen the RSF intensify their military operations, aiming to establish complete control over the region and exert influence in areas historically tied to longstanding feuds. Observers note that this aggression is not only about local dominance but is part of broader political and military calculations, hinting at a strategy to strengthen their negotiating position in potential peace talks or even to pursue administrative and political separation for Darfur, following models seen in Libya and Yemen.

Following their capture of El Fasher, the capital of Darfur, in late October, the RSF has fortified its position by utilizing the neighboring Kordofan region as a strategic defense line against the Sudanese army's potential advances in Darfur. Meanwhile, military operations in the three Kordofan states have seen the Sudanese army make considerable progress, particularly in southern regions. The interaction between these military dynamics highlights the complexities of the conflict and the potential for increased violence amidst ongoing power struggles.

With the RSF's recent surge in operations aimed at overpowering localities still outside their control, the situation remains precarious. As these developments unfold, analysts express concerns that the balance of power in the region could shift dramatically, further fueling ethnic tensions and complicating the already volatile political landscape of Sudan. This ongoing conflict raises urgent questions about the future of governance and stability in Darfur and the broader implications for the country.