The upcoming Gorton byelection is poised to be a critical test for Reform UK and its candidate, Matt Goodwin. A win here would not only bolster the party's momentum but also signal that Nigel Farage's polling lead reflects genuine voter intentions rather than mere discontent with the current government. Goodwin's campaign strategy appears to focus more on critiquing the opposition, particularly Keir Starmer's leadership, rather than detailing Reform's specific policies or addressing local issues, which raises questions about the party's local engagement.

Reform UK has identified Gorton and Denton as a strategic target, ranking it 440th on their list. The party's recent electoral history, including a narrow victory in the Runcorn and Helsby byelection, lends weight to their optimism about securing votes, especially from non-traditional voters who have been pivotal in previous successes. The mobilization effort is expected to involve at least 1,000 activists, showcasing the party's commitment to energizing a voter base that typically does not participate in elections.

Matt Goodwin himself is a polarizing figure in the political landscape, having roots in the Manchester area but spending much of his life in England's south-east. He has been described as a 'Marmite' character due to the strong opinions he elicits from across the political spectrum. This byelection may not only impact Reform UK but also have implications for Labour and the Green parties, as their ability to counteract Reform's momentum could shape future electoral dynamics in the region.