Japan is projected to see a total of 705,809 births in 2025, including children born to foreigners or born abroad to Japanese nationals, reflecting a 2.1% decrease from the previous year. This marks the tenth consecutive year of declining birth rates, as revealed by a report from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, which underscores the persistent issue of declining birth rates contributing to decreasing population numbers. The report shows that the natural decrease, calculated as the difference between births and deaths, has reached a record high of 899,845 in the past year.

Since dropping below the one million mark in 2017, the number of births including foreigners has continued to fall. While Tokyo and Ishikawa Prefecture showed an increase in births, all other regions experienced declines. Furthermore, the report notes a slight increase in marriage rates, which rose by 1.1%, suggesting a potential inflection point, though officials emphasize that more data is necessary to assess potential changes in birth trends. The complexities surrounding declining birth rates, including reduced young populations, trends toward later marriages, and personal circumstances, were highlighted by ministry representatives as contributing factors.

The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research had previously projected that births for 2025 would be approximately 774,000. However, if trends continue at their current rate, the actual number is expected to reach only 701,000 by 2042 based on medium estimates. In June, the Ministry is set to release further statistics on the number of Japanese children born in Japan, with independent estimates suggesting around 668,000 births to Japanese nationals in 2025, exacerbating concerns about demographic challenges facing the nation.