Before the onset of the war, the Russian economy enjoyed a strong financial position and record growth, bolstered by substantial reserves. However, the conflict with Ukraine has significantly disrupted this economic stability, exposing Moscow to unprecedented Western sanctions. Initially, the economy seemed to withstand the pressures, largely due to military spending. Yet, after four years, it appears to have entered a phase of fatigue and managed recession, where it is not collapsing but is finding it challenging to recover.

The reliance on energy revenues has been historically crucial for Russia's economy; however, with declining prices and sanctions limiting its market access, the fiscal landscape has changed dramatically. This shift has forced Russia to lean more heavily on debt to sustain its operations and maintain governmental functions. As the nation grapples with this new financial reality, the long-term implications for economic growth and stability remain precarious.

The current situation also emphasizes the intertwined relationship between geopolitical conflicts and economic health. With the ongoing sanctions and a complex array of external pressures, the pathway to recovery for the Russian economy is fraught with challenges. The future economic policies adopted by the Kremlin will be pivotal in determining whether Russia can revitalize its economy or faces prolonged stagnation.