Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine four years ago, several layers of Western sanctions have been enacted, with many observers waiting for a tipping point where the economic decline would inhibit Russia's ability to sustain the war. Despite a deteriorating economic landscape, such a moment has yet to materialize. Currently, the Russian economy is artificially maintaining growth, largely due to military expenditures, but underlying indicators reveal high inflation, a shortage of labor, and financial instability that threaten its long-term viability. Recent developments in the oil market are further exacerbating Russia's economic situation.

Western sanctions against Russia have had an effect, albeit mitigated by evasion mechanisms and the search for alternative markets. Since the onset of the war, the European Union's exports to Russia have halved, while trade with Central Asia has increased significantly, acting as a conduit for goods entering Russia. Concurrently, Russia has strengthened its ties with China and India, with China providing essential goods and support that allow Russia to navigate the impact of sanctions as it seeks to diversify its economic partnerships beyond traditional Western allies. This shift indicates a significant realignment in global trade dynamics due to the ongoing conflict.

As Europe prepares to impose new sanctions targeting the oil sector, the ultimate outcome and efficacy of these measures remain uncertain. The ongoing situation poses challenges for international economic policy and highlights the complex interdependencies in global trade. As the war continues, the prolonged economic issues in Russia may eventually contribute to a reevaluation of its military ambitions, although the timeline for such a change remains unclear.