A recent report from a leading military think tank, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, indicates that Russia has the capacity to sustain its invasion of Ukraine through 2026. Bastian Giegerich, the think tank's director general, expressed that there is 'little indication' that Russia's war efforts are diminishing as they enter a fifth year. This assertion comes amid growing concerns about Russia's military capabilities and the increasing threat posed by its missile and drone operations to Europe.

In 2025, the Kremlin allocated significant resources for defense, reportedly spending at least $186 billion, which equates to 7.3% of Russia's GDP—more than double what the United States spends and approximately three times higher than the UK's military expenditure. Fenella McGerty, a defense finance expert with the institute, stated that although Russia's economy shows signs of slowing, potentially impacting military spending in 2026, this needs to be assessed in the context of years of previous spending growth.

The implications of this ongoing military capability raise critical questions for European security. As Russia strengthens its military spending, even amidst economic challenges, the potential for extended conflict poses risks not just to Ukraine but also to the broader European region. The report suggests that Western nations need to remain vigilant and prepared, as the risk of escalation in military hostilities could continue for the foreseeable future.