European intelligence agencies have expressed doubts about the possibility of the war in Ukraine coming to an end by 2026. Conversations with representatives from these agencies reveal that they believe Russia is not motivated to seek a swift resolution, seeing the ongoing discussions with the United States primarily as a means to negotiate for the lifting of sanctions and to establish favorable business deals. This scepticism places EU intelligence assessments at odds with the US perspective, particularly regarding the timing and nature of potential peace agreements.

The differences in approach between the US and European capitals have become more pronounced, with European officials observing a fundamental divergence in the evaluation of the conflict's dynamics. While Ukraine’s government perceives the US administration as pushing for a peace deal to be reached by June, potentially aimed at avoiding complications in the forthcoming November elections, European intelligence suggests a more cautious outlook, emphasizing the continued strategic interests of Russia in maintaining its military operations in Ukraine. The conflicting analyses may further impact diplomatic communications and strategies towards the conflict.

European agencies stress that Russia's motivations for prolonging the conflict are rooted in broader strategic aims, including territorial ambitions and regional influence. The ongoing negotiations between the US and Russia, as interpreted by European sources, appear to focus less on an immediate ceasefire and more on the strategic recalibration of each party's advantages. This context creates a complex environment for any potential resolution, underscoring the challenges faced by international actors in finding a diplomatic solution amidst deeply entrenched positions.