The article details how Western intelligence agencies predicted Russia's plans for invasion months in advance, but their warnings went largely unheeded by European nations and even Ukrainians themselves.
The article recounts the background of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, highlighting how Western intelligence agencies, particularly the CIA and MI6, accurately foresaw the aggression months before it happened. Despite extensive interviews and analyses compiled by the British Guardian, the intelligence findings faced skepticism from international stakeholders, including countries in Europe and Ukraine, who dismissed the warnings as alarmist or exaggerated.
The article delves into the critical period leading up to the invasion, pinpointing the first half of 2020 as a crucial phase where Vladimir Putin's isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic led him to reflect on literature regarding the history of the Russian Empire. This introspection, combined with his consolidation of power, set the stage for the decision to invade Ukraine, reflecting a strategic shift in Kremlin policies long before the actual invasion commenced.
Additionally, the article emphasizes that Western intelligence agencies have yet to discover a definitive moment—a 'smoking gun'—that clearly indicates when Putin made the decision to go ahead with the invasion. The narrative suggests that numerous seemingly isolated incidents from that time are now recognized as significant indicators that collectively point to the inevitable conflict, illustrating the complex interplay of historical narrative and political ambition underpinning Russia's military actions.
