Analysts have noted that intelligence agencies like the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Britain's MI6 foresaw the invasion of Ukraine but underestimated its implications, believing Ukraine would falter quickly. Initial warnings about Russia's military buildup began surfacing as early as spring 2021, with troop concentrations near the Ukrainian border and in occupied Crimea initially described as "exercises". Although these maneuvers raised suspicions, the analytical community failed to predict the resilience of Ukraine's response.

In the run-up to the invasion, April 21, 2021, was identified as a critical date when President Putin sought to ideologically rationalize an attack on Ukraine during an annual address. President Biden, having received intelligence regarding these developments a week earlier, took the unusual step of contacting Putin directly to express his concerns. The interactions highlighted the increasing tensions and the challenges faced by international diplomatic efforts to avert the conflict, setting the stage for the surprise and intensity of Russia's offensive actions.

The story sheds light on the complexities of intelligence analysis and the difficulties inherent in predicting the outcomes of geopolitical events. Furthermore, it emphasizes the need for more nuanced assessments when confronting aggression, suggesting that prior biases may have impacted Western intelligence conclusions regarding Russia's intentions and capabilities. This narrative also provides critical context for understanding the dynamics that have characterized the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.