A recent analysis by the Noto Sondaggi Institute indicates a slight lead for the Yes vote regarding the separation of careers law in Italy, with 53.3% in favor against 46.7% opposed. This margin of 3.3% is meaningful but not decisive, especially considering that 20% of voters remain undecided, suggesting that the final outcome is still very much in question. This undecided group represents a substantial potential for change as the voting date approaches.

Politically, the analysis highlights a strong cohesion among center-right voters, with extremely high support for the Yes vote from different parties: 97% of Fratelli d'Italia voters, 96% from the League, and 94% from Forza Italia indicate their intent to vote Yes. These figures show overwhelming alignment with the official party positions and indicate a solid base for the Yes campaign. Importantly, among these parties, there has been no shift towards the opposing No vote, suggesting that dissent within their ranks is minimal and does not threaten the majority stance.

The ongoing campaign is further complicated by the significant number of undecided voters, who could swing the result in either direction. The presence of this undecided group makes the electoral landscape unpredictable, adding pressure on campaign efforts as both sides attempt to persuade these voters leading up to the election. The outcome of this referendum could have broad implications for the structure of Italy's political and judicial system, underscoring the high stakes involved in the upcoming vote.