Recent polling data shows that the 'Yes' vote for Italy's upcoming judicial reform referendum is currently leading by five percentage points, registering at 52.5% compared to 47.5% for the 'No' vote. However, concerns about voter turnout loom large, with estimates suggesting participation could be between 34% and 38%, a stark contrast to the turnout seen during the 2016 constitutional reform referendum that mobilized a large segment of the Italian population.

Antonio Noto, a noted pollster, emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding actual voter turnout as the true variable that could influence the outcome of the upcoming referendum, scheduled for March 22 and 23. With a little over a month until the vote, and no substantial electoral campaign currently active, the dynamics of public engagement remain fluid. Noto warns that predictions are unreliable at this stage, as current surveys only reflect the sentiment of those who have been polled thus far.

This referendum does not require a quorum, making participation crucial for the legitimacy of the results. If truly low turnout manifests, there could be significant implications for the approval of the judicial reforms that the government seeks to implement. As such, the push for greater mobilization efforts may become a focal point in the lead-up to the referendum, as supporters of the reform endeavor to ensure higher voter engagement to secure a decisive victory.