The article examines the factors influencing Iceland's decision to resume negotiations for European Union (EU) membership, particularly in the context of a geopolitical landscape increasingly affected by the actions of the United States and Donald Trump's administration. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir's centrist coalition has promised a referendum on EU membership by 2027, yet the evolving situation, particularly concerning Arctic interests and US claims over Greenland, may necessitate an earlier vote.

Trump's attitude towards the Arctic and statements from his administration have implications for Iceland's accession process; a recent joke by Billy Long, the US ambassadorial candidate to Iceland, suggesting that Iceland could be the 52nd state of the US, highlights the tensions and confusion surrounding US foreign policy in this region. This adds a layer of complexity to Iceland's considerations of EU membership, as the country navigates its safety and security needs in a potentially shifting global landscape.

As geopolitical dynamics shift with possible influences from both the US and the EU, Icelandian policymakers may need to reconsider their strategies regarding European integration. The potential 'Trump effect' might accelerate Iceland's EU negotiations as concerns about national security and geopolitical stability become more pressing, especially in light of the changing Arctic policies and international relations with the US.