Iceland has announced plans for a referendum regarding its potential membership in the European Union, spurred by geopolitical tensions linked to U.S. President Donald Trump's claims over Arctic territories. Icelandic Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir revealed this news after a meeting in Warsaw with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, stating that the referendum could occur within a year, with expectations that it may happen as early as August. The urgency is attributed to recent comments and actions from Trump that have intensified geopolitical uncertainties in the region.

The timeline for the referendum has been moved up considerably from initial estimates of early 2027, largely influenced by Trump's controversial attempts to buy Greenland from Denmark and his imposition of tariffs, which have heightened the sense of urgency within Iceland. Recent remarks by the prospective U.S. ambassador to Iceland, jokingly suggesting that Iceland could become the 52nd U.S. state, have further fueled public interest. Meanwhile, public opinion in Iceland seems to have shifted positively towards EU membership, with various polls indicating a slight majority in favor of joining, as citizens increasingly recognize potential economic advantages.

Iceland's efforts to join the EU date back to 2009 but stalled in 2013 due to various issues including the Eurozone financial crisis and debates over fishing quotas. However, the changing European landscape post-Brexit could significantly alter attitudes towards their application for EU membership. Given the historical disputes over fishing rights between Iceland and the UK, the establishment of a referendum may set the stage for new negotiations with the EU and reshape Iceland's geopolitical strategy in relation to the U.S. and other global powers.