Oscar Jonsson, a defense specialist at the Swedish Defence University, warns in an opinion piece that Europe should not complacently think that Russia will take five years to prepare for a military attack on NATO. He suggests that signs indicate a possible Russian offensive could come much sooner than that, posing an immediate concern for European defense strategies. Jonsson emphasizes that there is no evidence to support the notion that Russia would wait for an extended period before testing its military capabilities in Europe.

The Swedish Military Intelligence and Security Service corroborates this urgency in its annual report, noting that Russia may have the capacity to carry out a smaller-scale military attack on NATO within a year following the end of the war in Ukraine. This development demands serious contemplation from European nations as they assess their current readiness against potential military aggression from Russia.

Jonsson's assessment draws from a simulation conducted by the German armed forces and the German newspaper Die Welt, which predicts that Russia could leverage a humanitarian crisis in Kaliningrad as a justification for military actions. Such scenarios underscore the need for NATO and European powers to remain vigilant and prepared for rapid shifts in the geopolitical landscape, particularly with respect to Russian military maneuvers in the coming years.