Feb 22 • 03:00 UTC 🇯🇵 Japan Asahi Shimbun (JP)

Four Years Since the Invasion of Ukraine: Russia Continues Its Offensive

Russia continues to advance on the frontline in Ukraine, defying expectations of economic collapse due to international sanctions imposed after its invasion.

On February 24, 2022, Russia commenced a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, facing intense sanctions from the United States, Europe, and Japan. Despite predictions from experts that the economic and financial stability of Russia would falter within six months due to these sanctions, the reality has proven more complex. While Russia's GDP growth did decline in 2022, it has since rebounded, suggesting a resilience that counters Western assumptions about its economy crumbling under pressure. This continuation of military expenditure has demonstrated Russia's so-called 'bottom strength', disarraying the expectations of its geopolitical opponents.

The article explores the multifaceted aspects of Russia's capacity to sustain its war efforts, examining military, economic, international, and social dimensions. Particularly noteworthy is the examination of how Russia has managed to circumvent certain economic pitfalls. While initial sanctions created a sense of impending economic collapse, the country's internal dynamics and support from emerging markets have provided a buffer against the anticipated fallout, allowing it to maintain military operations.

In light of these developments, the article raises critical questions about the continuing nature of Russia's aggression and the implications for international law and global security. Analysts express concerns that Russia's ongoing military capabilities may signal a troubling message to other nations, particularly China, about the feasibility of sustained military engagements despite international condemnation and sanction regimes. The ongoing war in Ukraine not only stresses the resilience of Russia's military strategies but also challenges the efficacy of Western sanctions in curbing aggressive geopolitical behavior.

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