Russia is satisfied with what it has achieved. The state of the conflict suggests this, expert says
Czech expert Zdeněk Petráš analyzes the current state of the conflict in Ukraine and suggests that Russia is content with its territorial gains.
In an interview with Czech News Agency, Zdeněk Petráš from the University of Defense has assessed the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, stating that the current state hints that Russia is satisfied with its achievements. He characterizes the form of the conflict as maintenance rather than attritional, indicating that Russia is focused on holding its territorial gains rather than seeking further expansion at this time. According to him, the first phase of the war in spring and autumn of 2022 can be described as an 'odd war', where Russia’s attempt to quickly subdue Ukraine faced significant operational shortcomings.
Petráš draws parallels between Russia's military strategy in Ukraine and historical interventions by Warsaw Pact forces in Hungary and Czechoslovakia, suggesting that Russian forces initially made a strong push towards Kyiv and other strategic areas but ultimately failed to secure air superiority, which was detrimental to their overall military campaign. Their strategy resembled a bold invasion at first but devolved into a more static conflict, where the ability to control territory has become more about defense than offense.
Moreover, the expert notes that during the summer of 2022, Russia did manage to achieve some significant territorial gains and maintain an offensive stance, but these do not appear to have translated into a sustainable or favorable long-term strategy. Petráš’s insights reflect a growing sentiment that, despite setbacks, Russia is likely to solidify its current positions rather than aggressively pursue further efforts to expand its control in Ukraine.