A report published by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicates that the Kremlin may be preparing to reintroduce a limited, permanent military draft in a bid to sustain the size of its army. This move comes in response to substantial losses sustained by Russia in its ongoing conflict with Ukraine, a situation that has also been exacerbated by the lack of significant territorial gains. The Duma has recently approved legislation that tightens regulations against those evading military service or criticizing the war, which is viewed in the West as a legal basis for prosecuting Russian citizens who refuse conscription or express dissent regarding military actions.

The legislation aims to reduce public discontent regarding forced drafting and to normalize conscription processes in a country that experienced a massive outflow of citizens—up to 900,000 Russians—after the official mobilization was announced in 2022. The increased controls over war-related criticisms are seen as a tactic by Moscow to stifle dissent and manipulate civil sentiment on military service. This legal framework may serve to repress anti-draft movements and discourage further protests from those opposed to compulsory military service.

Should this additional mobilization proceed, it is expected to further weaken an already strained public trust in the government and might provoke a resurgence of resistance among the populace. The implications of this move could extend beyond military logistics to potentially ignite protests and civil unrest against the backdrop of the ongoing war with Ukraine, thereby placing the Kremlin in a precarious position both domestically and internationally.