The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) highlights that Russia is preparing for a significant summer offensive in Ukraine, with key targeted areas including the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk and Orikhiv regions. However, analysts note that Russian forces are struggling to secure the initial positions necessary for this extensive assault, leading to questions about the feasibility of their impending campaign. As Russian troops find themselves stalled in a tactical phase, the success of this summer's operations remains uncertain.

Furthermore, starting from July 2025, Russia is reportedly forming a strategic reserve of newly conscripted soldiers, yet faces mounting difficulties in compensating for battlefield losses. This has compelled the military to tap into operational reserves during current confrontations. Military leaders are confronted with a challenging decision: whether to utilize limited strategic reserves now to improve their positions or conserve them for the forthcoming summer operations, which risks hindering preparations for the offensive itself.

The ISW also emphasizes that the Kremlin continues to reject any significant security guarantees for Ukraine, further complicating the already tense situation. With insufficient reserves likely to meet full preparedness for an effective offensive, the overall effectiveness of Russia's strategy appears to be in jeopardy.