According to an article by The Economist, the chances of the Russian military securing a decisive victory in Ukraine are dwindling. Military operations in the Donetsk region have seen minimal gains, with Russian forces only advancing 60 kilometers between June 2021 and May 2024, a stark contrast to previous large-scale military conflicts where advancements would cover hundreds or thousands of kilometers. This stagnation highlights the growing improbability of Russia achieving its objectives in Ukraine amid a backdrop of strengthened Ukrainian defenses and strategic support from Western allies.

Furthermore, the article emphasizes that the diplomatic efforts initiated to resolve the conflict, particularly discussions that were held in Geneva, are largely unproductive. Despite expectations that negotiations could lead to compromises from Kyiv, the diplomatic route remains largely closed, contributing to the Kremlin's isolation and inability to navigate out of its crisis. This lack of progress hints at an escalation of military engagements as Russia grapples with international pressures and internal dissent.

Moreover, internal issues within Russia compound the difficulties faced by its military. Challenges such as a shortage of prepared soldiers, plummeting morale among troops, and high rates of desertion severely undermine the effectiveness of military operations. As communication lines are restricted, the situation indicates increasingly precarious conditions for Russian forces, making it clear that winning the conflict in Ukraine is a mounting challenge for Putin's leadership.