In an interview with Vsquare, Andres Vosman, an expert on Russian affairs from Estonian intelligence, discussed the complexities of Russia's hybrid warfare strategies. He indicated that while Russia weighs the risks involved in such tactics, there are significant concerns about the possible repercussions of attacking civilian targets, which could lead to high numbers of casualties. Last year, it was reported that Russia had considered broad strikes against passenger aircraft, but these plans were ultimately shelved when the situation escalated to the political level, prompting Kremlin officials to recognize the extreme danger involved.

Vosman emphasized that despite Russia's cautious approach, there exists a risk that individual officials may take unauthorized actions to gain favor with superiors, potentially leading to disastrous miscalculations. He warned that the most substantial risk comes if the Russian government misjudges a situation, which could trigger unintended conflict or repercussions for international relations. The expert’s comments highlight the delicate balance Russia must strike in its military and geopolitical strategy amidst increasing scrutiny from Western intelligence agencies.

The discourse surrounding NATO's Article 5, which entails mutual defense among member states, remains precarious, according to Vosman. He deems it unlikely that Russia would escalate to the level of attacking NATO members directly, given the severe consequences that would follow. However, he reiterated the importance of vigilance among NATO countries concerning Russian ambitions and the unpredictable nature of its military tactics, emphasizing that any miscalculation could have far-reaching implications for global security.