Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russia, indicates that an assassination attempt on General Lieutenant Vladimir Alekseyev poses a significant challenge for the Kremlin, making it increasingly difficult for President Vladimir Putin to avoid essential decisions that should have been made long ago. In his article for The Times, Galeotti describes how a more liberal and technocratic faction within Russia’s elite has grown increasingly dissatisfied with the prolonged conflict in Ukraine. However, their influence over Putin remains minimal, which complicates any potential changes in strategy or policy.

In contrast, the Kremlin is more worried about ultra-nationalists who are calling for more aggressive military actions and are opposed to any compromise solutions for ending the war. There are growing concerns that this nationalist group may receive broader support from veterans of the war, presenting a potential shift in public sentiment that favors harder-line policies. Previously, Putin attempted to ignore this faction, but the fallout from the Wagner mutiny has prompted the Kremlin to take action to reel these groups in, as indicated by Galeotti.

Nonetheless, there is hesitance from Putin to directly confront the ultra-nationalists. The situation illustrates a complex power struggle within the Russian political landscape, where various factions vie for influence over state decisions, especially regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine. The ramifications of these internal dynamics could have far-reaching consequences for Russia and its approach to the conflict.