China is on track to increase its imports of Russian crude oil for the third straight month, potentially reaching a new record high in February. According to traders and shipping data, independent refineries in China have taken advantage of significantly discounted shipments following a reduction in Russian crude purchases by India. Preliminary estimates by Fortec Analytics suggest that Russian oil shipments to China could amount to 2.08 million barrels per day this month, a considerable rise from the 1.7 million barrels per day recorded in January, as per Kepler statistics.

Since November, China has replaced India as the largest buyer of Russian maritime shipments, prompted by the ongoing Western sanctions tied to the war in Ukraine. These sanctions and pressures for a trade agreement with the United States forced India to cut its purchases of Russian crude to the lowest levels seen in two years by December. This shift not only highlights China's growing reliance on Russian oil but also underscores the geopolitical ramifications of energy dependencies in the context of global sanctions and trade dynamics.

The implications of this upward trend in Russian crude imports are significant for global oil markets, as it reflects shifting patterns of demand and supply. As China enhances its crude oil imports amidst a backdrop of reduced Indian purchases, it may lead to further adjustments in pricing and availability of Russian oil on the global stage. The ongoing evolution of China’s energy strategy, particularly in light of recent geopolitical changes, will play a crucial role in determining the future stability and dynamics of oil markets worldwide.