More than six years after the social security reform approved in 2019, statistics reveal the urgent need for further adjustments in Brazil's pension system. A report from Valor Econômico indicates that the combined deficit of the INSS, the civil servant pension system, and the military pension scheme has surged from R$ 271.7 billion in 2015 (2.64% of GDP) to R$ 442 billion in 2025 (3.42% of GDP), marking a real increase of 62.7%. Despite the reforms, the persistent growth in the deficit highlights ongoing financial challenges.

In the INSS, which caters to private sector workers, the portion of expenses not covered by contributions is projected to reach R$ 322 billion in 2025 (2.49% of GDP). The financial results from the previous year benefited from temporary relief due to two conjunctural factors: a backlog of about 3 million benefit claims that need to be addressed and increased revenue resulting from a more formalized labor market and a decrease in unemployment over recent years. However, both factors are expected to lose their effectiveness in the near future.

As Brazil grapples with these financial strains, the implications extend beyond fiscal sustainability; they touch upon justice and equity within the social security system. The rising deficit raises critical questions about the adequacy of current contributions and benefits, requiring policymakers to consider both economic and ethical dimensions in future reforms to ensure the system's viability and fairness for all citizens.