In a recent statement to AFP, Egilis Zviedris, the director of the Latvian State Security Service (SAB), emphasized that the nature of Russia's aggressiveness after the conflict in Ukraine will be influenced by numerous factors. This includes the war's conclusion—whether it will be frozen or formally ended—and the future of international sanctions imposed on Russia. Observers suggest that Russia's full transition to a war economy and military mobilization could make it challenging for the country to shift directions, potentially leading to new military offensives against European territories.

Zviedris pointed out that the removal of current sanctions could enable Russia to enhance its military capabilities more swiftly. Despite acknowledging that Russia has prepared military plans for potential aggressive actions towards Latvia and its Baltic neighbors, he reassured that Russia currently does not pose a military threat to Latvia. This nuanced stance highlights the complexity of the regional security situation, indicating that while Russia's military ambitions are concerning, the immediate threat level remains low.

The existence of invasion plans, according to Zviedris, does not imply an intention for immediate aggression, yet it serves as a reminder of the persistent risk that the geopolitical landscape poses to the Baltic states. As tensions in the region continue to evolve, the international community remains vigilant, assessing the strategic implications of Russia's military posture and the potential need for continued economic sanctions to contain its aggressive impulses.