Expectations of an Increase in China's Current Account Surplus in 2026
Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for China's current account surplus in 2026 to 4.3% of GDP, supported by record trade figures in the last quarter.
Goldman Sachs has recently increased its forecast for China's current account surplus for 2026, now predicting it will reach 4.3% of GDP compared to a previous estimate of 4.1%. This adjustment follows the release of data indicating a record level of goods and services trade during the last quarter of the previous year. Economists at Goldman Sachs, led by Yuting Yang, have noted that last year the surplus stood at 3.7% of GDP, exceeding earlier expectations of 3.5%. Alongside these adjustments, preliminary figures from China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange indicated that the country recorded a current account surplus of $242 billion in the last quarter, translating to approximately 4.4% of GDP, as estimated by Goldman Sachs.