Recent data from the PK-business barometer reveals a slight decline in the business expectations of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Finland since last autumn. Factors such as tariffs imposed by the United States and escalating international relations, the ongoing Russian invasion, and broader geopolitical instability have contributed to this downturn in expectations for the latter half of 2025. Additionally, a weaker domestic consumption demand is also negatively impacting the outlook for business conditions among these companies.

Currently, 23 percent of SMEs believe that business conditions will improve over the next 12 months, while an equal percentage predicts a deterioration. More than half of the SMEs anticipate that conditions will remain stable. The autumn 2025 barometer showed a one percentage point increase in those expecting better conditions and a two percentage point decrease for those anticipating worsening conditions compared to previous measurements. This suggests that the general economic perception among SMEs is somewhat in line with broader economic forecasts, indicating stability or a slight weakening in Finland's economic trajectory.

The implications of these findings suggest a cautious approach by SMEs in Finland, highlighting growing concern over external economic pressures. SMEs form a crucial part of the Finnish economy, and their expectations are often a bellwether for overall economic health. Therefore, the slight decline in optimism may signal challenges ahead, particularly in a climate of uncertainty influenced by global events.