The recent study funded by Sitra and conducted by Capful Oy explores the implications of a significant increase in Finland's defense budget due to worsening global security conditions. It outlines four scenarios that project the potential state of Finland by 2035, should it become necessary to allocate more financial resources to defense. These scenarios include various geopolitical shifts and the consequent impact on Finland's role and security strategy within Europe.

One notable scenario presents a situation described as a 'new Cold War', where Finland's security environment remains stable despite rising tensions between Europe and Russia. In this context, Finland continues to be an integral part of the European Union, facing ongoing hybrid threats, while NATO's role shifts, pushing greater responsibility for European security onto European nations. Finland's defense spending is projected to rise to five percent of its GDP, reflecting pressures from NATO's requirements and local security needs.

The study raises critical questions about Finland's strategic posture and defense funding amid external threats. With global instability becoming increasingly likely, the feasibility of sustaining high defense expenditures will be scrutinized, potentially reshaping public discourse around military spending and national security in Finland. As these scenarios unfold, understanding their implications could guide policymakers and citizens alike in preparing for various futures that lie ahead.