The article explores four potential scenarios for Finland over the next decade, focusing on how global and regional conflicts might influence the nation's future. The scenarios include a new Cold War, a China-led new globalism, Finland's involvement in a war in the Baltic region, and Finland being part of an open consumption war. Experts analyze each scenario's impact on Finland's economy and population, with particular emphasis on the daunting prospect of becoming embroiled in a long-term conflict.

The most alarming scenario posits Finland as a battleground in a prolonged conflict, which could see defense spending rise to 35% of GDP. Such a scenario poses severe implications not only for the country's military readiness but also for social and economic stability. The implications of these projections are significant, suggesting that if Finland finds itself in the midst of a regional conflict involving Russia and Baltic states, essential services and civilian life could be deeply affected.

The research, conducted by Capful Oy in collaboration with Sitra, underlines the importance of strategic foresight in assessing potential risks and preparing for uncertain futures. It raises critical questions about Finland's defense policies, economic resilience, and the country’s role in a shifting geopolitical landscape, reinforcing the notion that proactive measures will be necessary to safeguard national interests against these emerging threats.