The Brazilian government, under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has assessed the situation in Cuba and does not foresee an imminent collapse of the regime led by Miguel Díaz-Canel. This perspective comes in the wake of U.S. policies aimed at suffocating the Cuban economy but differs markedly from the scenarios observed in Venezuela and Iran, where significant political unrest has led to changes in leadership. Unlike Venezuela, where Nicolás Maduro was recently pressured out of power, and Iran, which has experienced widespread protests, Cuba currently lacks large-scale public discontent leading to protests against its government, suggesting a relative stability for Díaz-Canel at this moment.

Despite this assessment, Brazilian officials are not dismissing the potential consequences of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Cuba, which they view as critical. There is a concern that the worsening humanitarian conditions—exacerbated by economic sanctions and resource shortages—could lead to instability within the Castro regime. As such, the Brazilian government is closely monitoring the situation and preparing to respond if necessary, indicating an awareness of the humanitarian needs and the potential for political ramifications that such a crisis could trigger.

In light of the humanitarian crisis, the Brazilian government is taking proactive steps, preparing to send aid to Cuba, including shipments of food and medicine. This move reflects a commitment to support the Cuban people while navigating the complex political and economic landscape created by external pressures. It also underscores Brazil's distinction in its approach to international relations concerning Cuba, focusing on humanitarian response rather than overt political intervention.