According to Tor Bukkvoll of the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment, Russia's military is in a weakened state compared to before the onset of the war in Ukraine, having lost significant equipment and personnel. Bukkvoll suggests that there is a tendency in the West to overestimate the speed at which Russia could rebuild its military capabilities once the conflict ends. While some estimates predict recovery within one to two years, he considers this overly optimistic and argues that a more realistic timeframe for Russia's military modernization could range from five to ten years, especially if the country aims to technologically upgrade its forces rather than merely reinstating their former structure.

Furthermore, despite the ongoing conflict being detrimental in many respects, it has, paradoxically, also served to strengthen certain aspects of the Russian military. Bukkvoll points out that the four-year-long conflict has provided some troops with valuable combat experience, which could enhance operational effectiveness over time. While the organization may have become battle-hardened, it’s crucial to note there are also many new recruits who lack this experience, contributing to a complex military environment.

The discussion also highlights the significant role that China might play in shaping Russia's military future. The possibility of increased support from China could dramatically alter the strategic landscape for Russia as it seeks to modernize its military. Bukkvoll concludes that understanding these dynamics will be essential for assessing post-war military capacities and alignments, not only for Russia but also for its relationships with powerful allies like China.