A recent analysis by economist José Ignacio Conde-Ruiz highlights that demographic changes have acted as a brake on economic growth in Spain during the first two decades of the 21st century. The reduction in the active population—those either working or seeking employment—and widespread aging have led to a total decline of 3.8% in growth from 2000 to 2019. This demographic trend posed significant challenges to the country's economy, limiting its potential for recovery and development. However, a slight uptick in growth has been observed post-COVID, primarily due to immigration, which contributed an additional 0.3% to the GDP.

Conde-Ruiz's research indicates a stark contrast when looking at historical data. Between 1980 and 1999, Spain enjoyed a demographic boom that positively influenced GDP per capita growth, with a cumulative effect of 9.28%. The favorable demographic structure, marked by a rising population of working-age individuals, bolstered economic expansion during that time. In contrast, the current demographic landscape, characterized by a shrinking workforce and an increasing elderly population, introduces new economic challenges that require urgent attention.

The implications of these findings suggest that policymakers must focus on strategies that not only address the immediate impacts of demographic decline but also promote sustainable immigration policies that can help rejuvenate the labor market and support economic growth. Without such measures, Spain may face fundamental issues that could impede long-term prosperity and stability as it grapples with an aging population and a reliance on immigration for economic vitality.