According to estimates by the Credit Information Bureau (BIK), the value of housing loans provided by banks and credit unions in Poland reached nearly PLN 106 billion in 2025, marking a 20.9% increase compared to the previous year. Approximately 238,000 individuals obtained loans, which is a 13.8% rise from the prior year. The bureau predicts a further increase in the housing loan value to PLN 127 billion in 2026, attributed mainly to expected interest rate cuts and an optimistic outlook for economic growth in Poland.

The report anticipates that interest rates will decrease by 0.5-0.75 percentage points, bringing them down to between 3.25% and 3.5%. The economic growth rate is projected to exceed 3%, with salary increases at around 5%, and an unemployment rate stabilizing at a low 5%. However, high geopolitical risks pose a challenge to this optimistic forecast, indicating that while borrowing is set to rise, external factors could affect the broader economic environment.

Despite the surge in credit issuance, published data from BIK raises concerns as this borrowing boom has not directly correlated with an increase in property sales on both the primary and secondary markets. A significant portion of the loans is reportedly being utilized for refinancing previous, more expensive loans, rather than facilitating the purchase of new properties, suggesting a complex dynamic in the housing market where increasing borrowing does not lead to increased housing transactions.