Analysts have indicated that Russia is preparing for a large-scale offensive against Ukraine, potentially targeting major cities in the eastern Donetsk region followed by southern Zaporizhzhia. This strategy is expected to force Ukraine to spread its military resources thin to respond to the attack. The assessment comes as Ukrainian intelligence and military experts believe that a two-phase operation is likely, which aims to capitalize on Russia's buildup of troops and military equipment in the region.

Further insights from American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) observed that Russia has been developing strategic reserves since 2025, which can facilitate a significant summer offensive. These preparations suggest that Russian military leadership is not only focused on immediate confrontations but is also strategically positioning itself for a sustained military campaign against Ukraine. U.S. intelligence remains cautious about whether Russia intends to cease fighting or escalate its military actions.

The situation remains tense, particularly in light of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's shock at Russia’s recent decision to change the leadership of its negotiation delegation. This shift could indicate a potential change in Russia's military or diplomatic strategy, adding uncertainty to the ongoing conflict. As the spring approaches, Ukraine's defensive measures must adapt to counter the anticipated offensive, which could fundamentally alter the dynamics of the war.