The Brazilian dollar experienced a decline, dropping 0.29% to R$ 5.2052 at the opening of the session on Monday, as detailed in the latest Focus bulletin that reported a new fall in inflation projections for 2026, now forecasted at 3.97%. Investors are reacting to these projections which also forecast the dollar at R$ 5.50, with a GDP growth estimate of 1.80% and an expected Selic rate of 12.25% per annum.

In addition to the Focus bulletin, the day features notable events, including a speech by Gabriel Galípolo, the president of the Central Bank, at an event organized by the Brazilian Association of Banks (ABBC), focusing on financial stability. This addresses prior concerns about the monetary policy and its implications in stabilizing the economy amid challenging circumstances.

Market sentiments are further influenced by the Federal Reserve's officials speaking later in the afternoon. Their discussions may impact international markets and, consequently, the Brazilian economy, as traders remain vigilant during this earnings season, with significant reports like the R$ 4.597 billion adjusted net profit for BTG Pactual in the last quarter of 2025 drawing investor interest.